Tradesports and Nominees
Professors Jim Lindgren and Orin Kerr, both of the Volokh Conspiracy, are debating whether and to what extent Tradesports.com "works," where works means doing something other "just mirror the collective common wisdom of newspapers and blogs":
Kerr: It doesn't work. It's just a bunch of ignorant people making bets based on the predictions of other ignorant people. By "ignorant," I don't mean stupid. I just mean ill-informed. In this context, the President and two or three other people know the answer. And they're not talking. Everyone else is ignorant. Tradesport's market is thus nothing but a computer program tracking pluralistic ignorance.Okay, there's more to the debate than that. I think. You can read the full thing by reading this post and then reading the "Related Posts." Is anyone from Legal Affairs reading? Turn the Kerr-Lindgren discussion into a Debate Club.
Lindgren: You're wrong. It worked. It predicted Roberts.
Kerr: It "predicted" Roberts after a bunch of ignorant people starting "thinking" Roberts would be nominated.
Lindgren: It worked. It predicted Roberts.
Kerr: Right. It "predicted" Roberts after a bunch of (again, ignorant) people predicted Roberts. What's so special about that?